Daily Hazard Rate by Age

Calculates the daily probability of death based on age using a simplified Gompertz-Makeham mortality model. Returns a central estimate plus credible bounds derived from ±10% sensitivity on the Gompertz parameters a (background mortality) and b (initial mortality).

Usage

daily_hazard_rate(age, sex = "male")

Arguments

age

Age in years

sex

"male" or "female" (default: "male")

Value

A tibble with:

age

Input age

sex

Input sex

daily_prob

Daily probability of death (central estimate)

micromorts

Daily baseline risk in micromorts (central estimate)

micromorts_lower

Lower credible bound (micromorts) from ±10% parameter sensitivity

micromorts_upper

Upper credible bound (micromorts) from ±10% parameter sensitivity

microlives_consumed

Estimated microlives consumed per day

precision_note

Reminder that Gompertz parameters are approximate

interpretation

Human-readable summary

Details

The Gompertz hazard is h(x) = a + b * exp(c * x). Bounds are computed by varying a and b independently by ±10% (four combinations) and taking the min/max across those combinations.

References

Gompertz B (1825). "On the Nature of the Function Expressive of the Law of Human Mortality." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society.

See also

annual_risk_budget(), compare_interventions()

Other analysis: annual_risk_budget(), compare_interventions(), lifestyle_tradeoff(), risk_sensitivity(), toxicological_risk()

Examples

# Baseline risk at age 30 with credible bounds
daily_hazard_rate(30)
#> # A tibble: 1 × 9
#>     age sex   daily_prob micromorts micromorts_lower micromorts_upper
#>   <dbl> <chr>      <dbl>      <dbl>            <dbl>            <dbl>
#> 1    30 male  0.00000203          2              1.8              2.2
#> # ℹ 3 more variables: microlives_consumed <dbl>, precision_note <chr>,
#> #   interpretation <chr>

# Compare male vs female at age 65
daily_hazard_rate(65, "male")
#> # A tibble: 1 × 9
#>     age sex   daily_prob micromorts micromorts_lower micromorts_upper
#>   <dbl> <chr>      <dbl>      <dbl>            <dbl>            <dbl>
#> 1    65 male   0.0000346       34.6             31.2             38.1
#> # ℹ 3 more variables: microlives_consumed <dbl>, precision_note <chr>,
#> #   interpretation <chr>
daily_hazard_rate(65, "female")
#> # A tibble: 1 × 9
#>     age sex    daily_prob micromorts micromorts_lower micromorts_upper
#>   <dbl> <chr>       <dbl>      <dbl>            <dbl>            <dbl>
#> 1    65 female  0.0000151       15.1             13.6             16.6
#> # ℹ 3 more variables: microlives_consumed <dbl>, precision_note <chr>,
#> #   interpretation <chr>